Wednesday, 26 April 2017

商业计划书(Business Plan)

想象一下支撑房子的四根支柱。房子那就是你的创业公司。这四根支柱分别是:
  • 你的产品
  • 你的目标客户或用户的市场。
  • 你的走向市场的策略(消费者如何了解你的产品)。
  • 你的商业模式(你如何赚钱)。

商业计划书(Business Plan)是创业者进入资本市场的第一块敲门砖。一份优秀的BP,可以引起投资人关注,进而得到进一步沟通的机会。但在现实生活中,很多创业者却不知道该如何写BP。本文来自盛世方舟高级投资分析师王丹的分享,从具体案例入手,手把手教创业者写出一份打动投资人的BP。

坚持三个原则

1、只放图片和关键字。千万注意,长段落容易模糊掉重点。
2、早期项目BP控制在20页以内,确保投资人1分钟看完。
3、直奔主题,只讲重点。
 “投资人收到BP,直接在微信里打开,快速扫描,基本一分钟读完。”这是投资人日常工作中最常见的场景。有个电商项目,BP开头花了三四页介绍行业现状,又花了三四页讲同类项目的情况,这些没必要。能拿到这个BP的投资人,对行业都有基本认识,并不需要大篇幅进行市场分析。
BP其实是创业者跟投资人描述自己项目的一个逻辑。

BP的主线和逻辑

第一,封面。
正中间写项目名称,而不是公司名称。也不要写“商业计划书”。加上项目Logo和一句话简介,基本说明项目是做什么的。
第二,市场。
首先,介绍市场容量,90%的人会夸大项目的市场容量。比如,只是孕妇产后修复项目,描述的却是母婴市场的容量。这里要讲清细分市场的真实规模。其次,用户的痛点是什么,如刚需、高频、高客单价等。
再有,就是切入点。有个宁波的租房项目,创始人先讲宁波市场有5个亿产值,用户痛点是租户要付中介费,他的项目不需要付费,从一开始就进入了正题。切入点是针对这个市场痛点去做,市场容量够大,可以允许很多人进入。
第三,产品或服务。
这是BP的重点,快速地介绍公司业务,简单清晰明了,少用套话、空话。有个做灭火器的项目,本该把重点放在能不能短时间内灭火,或者处理森林大火的能力如何。但这个项目的创始人把点放在了环保上。他在演示时把灭火材料涂在面包上,自己把面包给吃了。这对项目没有直接的帮助。
介绍完业务之后,一定要介绍产品的进度,点明项目的阶段。机构不同,对每个阶段的项目评价标准是不一样的。如果是游戏类产品,demo是非常必要的;如果demo也没有,演示起来比较困难,可以用产品的截图来说明大概功能,比较直观。
再有就是用户数据,投资人都非常关注用户数据,比如公众号类项目,用户数、活跃用户数、增长用户数,都是投资人比较关注的。
第四,竞品,也就是竞争对手。
尽量找跟自己阶段相近、模式相似、估值差不多的竞品。投资人可以基于对竞品的分析来进行估值。如果国内没有竞品,可以对标国外。中国互联网很多项目脱胎于国外。千万注意,不要攻击竞争对手,尽量做到客观。
第五,盈利模式。
一些投资人现在比较倾向于投有收入的项目。对于常年亏损的项目,还是比较恐惧的。如果常年没找到盈利模式,光烧钱的话,吸引力会小很多。我个人更倾向于基于现有的订单,对未来收入有个合理预期,或者在某个时间节点上基于某种原因可以有个很大的爆发。这是个基于理性的逻辑判断。
第六,团队。
草根创业越来越难,未来创业的门槛会越来越高。团队核心成员的履历就显得非常重要;完整性也很重要,CEO、CTO、CMO要齐全。很多项目只有一个CTO,根本没想好市场该如何推广,甚至没有市场团队,由技术人员去充当推销员。建议创业者能找到理想的团队,合理分工,默契配合。
团队的核心问题就是股权结构,核心团队成员持股比例一定要足够。投资很大程度上就是投资团队,一个健康的股权结构很重要。两个人开小店,对半分没问题;如果合伙做一个创业项目,对半分就有问题。再有,全职和兼职问题,这里涉及到这个人是否能全身心地投入创业。一般兼职人员是不能放在核心团队里的。
第七,发展历程。
做一个简单的发展历程时间轴,提炼出关键性事件,何时立项、何时上线、何时获得融资,何时数据有大的增长等。
第八,融资情况。
BP拿出来就是去融资,融资需求要写得非常明确。过往的融资情况,资方是谁,这一轮要多少钱,出让多少股份,融资的钱用在什么地方等。比如融资3000万,1000万用于收购下游企业,1000万做研发,500万用来发工资,500万做推广,要说服投资人你的资金使用是合理的。
再强调一次,融资不是越多越好,符合公司的发展规划才最好。需要多少钱,这笔钱用多长时间,拿到钱之后能达到什么样的目标,要有合理的规划,这些是创业者在见投资人之前就要想好的。
第九,封底。
产品二维码、Slogan、联系方式。最重要的就是联系方式,很多BP描述的项目很有意思,但没有联系方式,投资人也不知道去找谁。

需要注意的细节

1、BP的命名,最好能用这种格式命名,“项目名称+行业+城市+轮次”,PDF格式最佳,文件越小越好。
2、用户数据,务必点明所用时间、获客方式和成本。如:
“单月用户由1W自然增长至10W”
“两周增长1W,地推30%,自然增长70%,获客成本10元/位”
“用户已由1W增长至10W”
“现有用户10W”
 3、巧用LOGO,团队过往公司如果特别知名,完全可以用LOGO代替。
4、BP的色调要跟产品的色调保持一致。滴滴当年用来融资的BP,整个色调就是橙色,跟产品保持一致。

一些常见的误区

1、“BP不重要,项目本身质量好就够了”。
BP写的不好,好项目有可能会错过投资方。
2、“我的项目复杂高深,BP展示内容有限,有机会见到投资人,我就能口述打动他”。
大多数情况下,如果无法通过一个简单的BP讲清楚自己的项目,很有可能是创始人对项目的逻辑并不清楚。
3、“内容越详细越好”。
并不是,核心点说清楚就可以。
4、“我的项目不能曝光,担心被抄袭,所以BP不能展示核心内容”。
中国那么多人,为什么你能想到,别人就想不到,关键是你能做到,别人做不到,这才是你的优势。比如说滴滴刚出来,有人说我抄过来,你有那么多资金吗?你有能力去运营吗?
5、“投资人只看内容,形式不重要,美观程度没有影响”。
绝对是误区,从我自己的角度来讲,特别是有些技术类的项目,做出来的东西真的很不美观,当一天投资人看十几个、几十个BP时,并不是关系很好的人推荐的,从其他渠道收上来的BP,写得又不好看,很有可能下载之后就再也不看。
6、“写BP真浪费时间”。
写BP的过程,其实也是创业者对商业模式的梳理过程。
什么样的BP才是好BP?
你想融资多少,就请拿出价值多少钱的BP!

HiMirror Plus is a good design for the face search engine

Sexual Dimorphism of the Face, Feature by Feature

Here are the prototypes I have created including the profile prototypes:

The easiest way for a human to see the differences between 2 faces is to superimpose them and flick between them so I have animated the images to do this
Lets now look at the differences between male and female faces feature by feature as revealed by the prototypes combined with the established scientific research.

1. Hairline:
The female hairline is higher in the middle, lower in the corners and has a rounded shape. The male hairline is lower in the middle, higher in the corners and has more of a square or “M” shape. It seems to be widely believed in FFS circles that the male hairline is lower in the middle but as we can see, it is not.

2. Forehead:
The male forehead has a bony ridge running across it at about eyebrow level (brow bossing) while the female forehead is smoother and flatter. The female forehead is also more vertical while the male forehead tends to slope backwards a little. Male foreheads are more likely to have more pronounced vertical ridges (temporal lines) running up either side. The profile prototype suggests that the area above the bossing in the male may be slightly indented but I would want to see more profile prototypes to be sure about that.

3. Eyebrows:
The top edge of the eyebrows is at about the same height (or very slightly higher in females in a minority of prototypes) but female eyebrows are thinner so that the bottom edge of the eyebrow sits in a noticeably higher position and creates a bigger gap between the eye and the eyebrow. This gives the erroneous impression that women's eyebrows are significantly higher than men's rather than mainly thinner. The gap between the eyebrows is wider in females but this is likely again to be down to plucking.

4. Eyes:
Females have larger eyes in proportion to the face and the eyes have a more open expression with the top lid lifted a little more than in the male. The prototypes suggest that females have a stronger “canthal tilt” than males which means that female eyes are more slanted from the outer corners down to the inner corners than male eyes are. Internally, female orbits tend to be larger in proportion to the rest of the face and more rounded while male orbits tend to be smaller and more square. The inner edge of the orbit is sharper and rougher in females than in males. These differences in the orbits are unlikely to be relevant to FFS. In white people, the base of the nose seems to be about the same width as the eye for females but somewhat wider than the eye in males.

5. Cheeks:
The fleshy part or “apple” of female cheeks contains more fat than the male and is therefore fuller and rounder – male cheeks tend to be much more hollow here. The width of the cheekbones is about the same in men and women when compared to the distance between the eyes. Internally, the female cheekbone reaches back as far as the opening of the ear and the male cheekbone reaches a little further back than the opening of the ear. The male cheekbone is also thicker. These internal differences are unlikely to be relevant in FFS – I believe the apple of the cheeks is the key and therefore that the emphasis in FFS should be on fat grafts to the apple of the cheeks rather than augmentation of the cheekbone with implants.

6. Nose:
In the front view, the nose is narrower in females with smaller, less flared nostrils. There is some evidence from prototypes that the columella (the bit between the nostrils) sits a little lower relative to the nostrils in females. In the profile view, the base of the female nose has more of an upwards angle than the male. The female nose has a shorter (more blunt) tip than the male. The male nasion (the area where the nose meets the forehead) stands further forwards of the eyes than in the female because the nose is larger. Internally the nasal aperture in the skull in higher and narrower in males with a sharper angle where the 2 sides meet at the top.

7 Mouth:
The female mouth sits in a higher position than the male mouth. In the frontal view, the prototypes suggest that the female's lower lip has slightly more of a "V" shape while the lower lip of males is a little more "U" shaped. I have not seen that mentioned in any other studies. However, this difference is very small and may be irrelevant in FFS. Male and female mouths are actually very similar in the frontal view with very similar sized areas of vermilion exposed. This lead me to question why fuller lips “seem” more feminine but we can see the answer to that in the profile view of the prototype where the female lips are fatter, bulging forwards (anteriorly) a little more than male lips despite the amount of vermillion exposed being pretty much the same in the frontal view. I have not seen this mentioned in any other studies. In real life we would see the additional fullness from the front also because we see in 3D - it's only in a 2D frontal picture that the fullness is invisible. A lip lift which rolls the top lip out exposing more vermilion is still relevant in FFS because although women don't actually have a greater exposure of vermilion, having a little more exposed could help give the impression of fullness.
When a woman's mouth is open, her upper incisors are more likely to be exposed by a few mm than in the male. Internally, the male palate is proportionately wider than the female palate though this is largely irrelevant in FFS.
Males tend to have more pronounced and therefore more noticeable muscles around the mouth. The particular muscles that show are the obicularis oris which encircles the mouth and to a lesser extent, the triangularis which sits outside and below the corners of the mouth. The projection of the obicularis oris is emphasised by the hollowness of the apple of the cheeks in males.

8. Chin:
The female chin is shorter and narrower than the male chin. The prototypes suggest that the female chin is rounded rather than slightly pointed or almond shaped as some people believe. This mistaken belief may be based on the fact that internally, the female chin is somewhat pointed and this is therefore how it is often described in studies. The more relevant view for us in FFS is the external view and in that, the female chin is rounded. The male chin tends to be more square with a flat base an 2 corners.
The prototypes suggest that the male chin projects forwards a little more than the female chin if you compare to the nearest relevant landmark which is the area between the nose and top lip (this is relevant because it gives a clear vertical line by which the eye can judge the chin protrusion). I have not found any other studies yet giving male and female chin protrusion figures.
I have made a small study that suggests chin clefts might be a little more common in men than women. This simply involved counting the chin clefts on 50 male and 50 female faces – all randomly selected and I found that 58% of males had a visible cleft against 38% of women. This may be partly to do with the extra layer of fat that women have although that is just a guess. If it is down to that then hormones might reduce a mild cleft a little. More importantly, although they are a little more common on men they are still very common on women – so common in fact that a chin cleft can not really be considered a masculinity in my opinion. For this reason I do not think that they are an important consideration in FFS and are really more of personal preference issue. I would like to see more studies on the frequency of chin clefts in males and females as I feel my study is too small at the moment to be fully reliable.
The profile prototypes also suggest that the line between the chin and neck is fairly flat in females and slopes down a little from front to back a little in males. I suspect this is not particularly relevant in feminisation as it is not an area we see clearly in most interactions. This may be an anomaly in my prototypes so I would like to see more profile prototypes to verify this.

9. Jaw:
The female jaw is more delicate being vertically shorter and narrower. If you look at a male jaw from the side, the ramus (the vertical part at the back) is taller and more upright making the jaw into a right angle with a sharp corner. The female ramus is shorter, slopes backwards a little and has a rounded corner. Males often have more pronounced masseter muscles. Many people expect mens jaws to be wider in relation to their cheeks than women's but in fact women's cheeks are actually only a tiny bit wider than male's in relation to the jaw. This is too small a difference to really be significant and reduction of the masseter muscles from estrogen is likely to be enough to bring an average jaw to cheek width ratio into female norms. As I mentioned in part 1, I believe that the importance of the jaw is sometimes overstated in FFS because the corners are reasonably well hidden; they do not play a major role in gender recognition and wide jaws with aquare corners are very common on attractive women.

10. Neck:
The male neck is thicker than the female neck and males often have a visible Adam's apple. However, despite what many people believe, women often have a small but visible Adam's apple

11. Ears:
The prototypes suggest that male ears stick out more. I feel this is largely irrelevant for FFS but It is interesting.

12. Skin:
Female skin is paler than male skin in all ethnic groups and has a softer texture. Male skin is thicker and more oily than female skin,

13. Beard:
Males generally have a beard and therefore a beard shadow.

14 Other Differences:
The ridges and protrusions where muscles attach to the bones are generally more pronounced in the male skull. Examples include the "mastoid process" that protrudes below the ears and and the "inion" which is a bump on the back of the head and the female skull overall is smaller and more delicate than the male.

Controversies?
Well possibly: firstly I've shown that the male hairline is not higher than the female in the middle; secondly that female eyebrows are not or are only very slightly higher than the male; thirdly that male jaws are not significantly wider in proportion to the cheeks than female jaws.
There is more to male and female facial differences than individual features and in the next section we will look at how features relate to each other.